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Betting Guide
With all due respect to strikeouts, stolen bases, doubles and triples; homeruns are king in MLB.
They are the most exciting and most physically impressive thing that you can see in a game and everyone loves them. Chicks don’t dig the longball, everyone digs the longball.
Who will hit the most homeruns during an MLB season is one of the top races in the league each year and really fun to monitor.
It’s only natural that you can bet on who will hit the Most Homeruns. Picking a winner isn’t easy, but the odds on this are outstanding and there have been some big winners over the past couple of years.
This article will get more into the MLB Most Homeruns race including where to bet it and how to bet it.
Where To Bet MLB Most Home Runs:
America and Beyond: The best place to bet MLB Most Homeruns is Bovada who are usually the first to post these odds and keep them updated throughout the season.
I find a lot of online sportsbooks will post the odds before the season begins, however slack off a bit and there is just as much chance that they won’t even have odds listed. That’s why I much prefer Bovada who monitor it and keep it up on a regular basis.
United Kingdom: 888 offers plenty of futures and props for MLB betting and will usually offer the ability to bet on the most home runs by a player.
What is MLB Most Home Runs?
For example, in 2017 the eventual winner Giancarlo Stanton was +750 before the season and he had the lowest odds of any hitter. The winner in 2019 was Pete Alonso. In July 2019 he was +350 but if you bet him prior to the season beginning you’d actually have to ask the sportsbook to add him as even though they went as high as +10000, Alonso was never listed at any sportsbook.
Some sportsbooks also will give you the option to bet the most MLB team home runs in a season as well.
Common MLB Most Home Runs Questions:
What happens when 2 players tie for most home runs in a season? As did Perez and Guerrero Jr in 2021. What happens if I picked one, does bet push?
Normally in such cases, dead-heat rules will apply for this. So if it was a two-way tie as mentioned with Perez and Guerrero Jr., you would receive half your winnings back.
So if the winning amount was meant to be $500, it would be a $250 return you would get due to dead-heat rules.
An additional note – the sportsbooks I contacted didn’t actually offer up odds on Perez. Due to that, they paid out fully on Guerrero Jr.
Are the odds updated throughout the season?
Yes, they are.
A good example would be the aforementioned Giancarlo Stanton. He was +750 during the preseason, +1000 on May 3rd and +155 on July 31st. While runner-up Aaron Judge went from +8500 in the preseason to +165 on July 31st.
These odds change as the season goes on and change drastically. One hot month can change everything though as we saw in 2017 with Giancarlo Stanton.
Does MLB Most Home Runs Include the Playoffs?
No. When you are betting on the MLB Most Home Runs, it will only be for the regular season. Most sportsbooks actually will specify that and will list the bet as “Regular Season Home Runs” just to make sure there is no confusion.
Who has the most MLB Home Runs in One Season?
That would be Barry Bonds who as of this writing also has the most career home runs. Back in 2001 he hit a whopping 73 home runs. The average number for a league leader these days is around 45-50 home runs with a few anomalies at times such as Giancarlo Stanton with 59 in 2017.
Babe Ruth hit 54 homeruns in 1920 and then 59 homeruns in 1921 to set the record, but then broke his own record yet again in 1927. He would hit 60 in 1927 to set a record that would last for a long time. He was the gold standard for homeruns in a season until 1961 when Roger Maris broke his record with 61 homeruns. This record had an asterisk on it for a long time because Babe Ruth played in a shorter season of 152 games while Maris had 162 games to do it.
Ruth’s record for 34 years and then Maris’ record lasted for 37 years when Mark McGwire (and Sammy Sosa) would break it. 1998 was a huge year for homeruns with Sosa hitting 66 and McGwire setting a new record with 70 homeruns. Sosa and McGwire would topple Roger Maris again in 1999 with 63 and 65.
However, McGwire’s record would only last three years when the all-time record for homeruns in a season was set by Barry Bonds. The San Francisco slugger had one of the all-time great seasons with 73 homeruns. Interestingly enough, Sammy Sosa had another huge homerun year in 2001 as he finished with 64.
Who has the most MLB Home Runs in one postseason?
This record is perhaps unfair because of the amount of games that are played in the postseason now as compared to the old days. The 2020 MLB Postseason saw more playoff games then ever and, of course, saw new a record holder for postseason homeruns. Randy Arozarena had a huge postseason with 10 bombs. Corey Seager hit eight homeruns, also in 2020.
The title of Mr. October will always belong to Reggie Jackson who hit five homeruns in a single World Series. A record that has been tied twice by Chase Utley and George Springer, but Jackson’s era was much different and far less friendly to the long ball.
MLB Most Home Runs Betting Strategy:
In the past, I’ve looked at park factors to bet this category. However, a player like Giancarlo Stanton made that look silly when he went off to win this in 2017 in a tough pitcher’s park.
Another stat I’ve looked at is hard hit percentage (found at Fangraphs and 2016 really scared me off that one. Mark Trumbo won that year with 47 homeruns despite ranking 16th in that category. Of course, he was a big time outlier as he came out of nowhere that year and wasn’t near the top the next season.
The way I’ve begun to approach this one is by simply putting the elite power hitters together and then looking at their home park, the quality of the offense they are in and their projections for the season. I then try to make the best decision based on that and make my bet.
Betting during the season is a sound strategy too. There are people who you may not consider prior to the season beginning then you see they are a late bloomer. Try and get on them just as they are getting slightly hot.
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